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Stock market cycles : ウィキペディア英語版
Stock market cycles

Stock market cycles are the long-term price patterns of the stock market.
==Description==
There are many types of business cycles including those that impact the stock market.〔Channels & Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst, by Brian Millard, Traders Press (March 18, 1999)〕
In his book ''The Next Great Bubble Boom'', Guna, a Harvard graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, outlines several cycles that have specific relevance to the stock market.〔The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2005–2009, by Harry S. Dent, Jr., Free Press (September 2004〕 Some of these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
The major cycles of the stock market include:
* The four-year presidential cycle in the US.
* Annual seasonality, also known as Sell in May or the Halloween indicator〔http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid= For everything a season?, By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch, Oct. 28, 2005〕
* The "January effect"〔http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C02EFDA143EF936A35751C1A96F958260 STRATEGIES; Playing the January Effect, Whatever Its Cause, By MARK HULBERT, December 5, 1999〕
* The lunar cycle〔The Harvard Business Review, December 6, 2006〕
* The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle〔The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 by Kerry Balenthiran, Harriman House, February 2013〕
Investment advisor Mark Hulbert has tracked the long-term performance of Norman Fosback’s a Seasonality Timing System that combines month-end and holiday-based buy/sell rules. According to Hulbert, this system has been able to outperform the market with significantly less risk.〔http://abnormalreturns.com/2005/11/03/hulbert-on-fosback-seasonality-system/ Hulbert on Fosback seasonality system (Commenting on ''Barron's'' article, Trading the Calendar Can Pay Off Big, By Mark Hulbert, Thursday, November 3, 2005)〕
According to Stan Weinstein there are four stages in a major cycle of stocks, stock sectors or the stock market as a whole. These four stages are (1) consolidation or base building (2) upward advancement (3) culmination (4) decline.〔Weinstein S., Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, McGraw Hill, 1988, p. 31〕

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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